Sports Betting

[Penguin]

Guys, anyone here bet on sports?

I'm looking for safe bets, I assume we have a couple brains in MLB and NBA.

Post your picks and ask me for my insight on NHL/Tennis I've been good this year.

[GM Office Q]

Clippers -4 1/2
Pacers +4

[Virtual Jarmo]

There's no such thing as a "safe" bet. Everything is tied into percentages. For example, the Clippers at -4.5 are expected to win the game 63.65% of the time. The moneyline equivalent to 63.65% = -175. Current moneyline is -200. Thunder at 36.35% to win is +175, right where the line is at. Shade the favorite, pay exact price for the underdog. It's a very efficient business.

The way to find inefficiencies is not to bet the primetime major sporting events, especially with standalone or two-game schedules. Ultimately, the softest markets are college football and college basketball because of the number of teams. Oddsmakers can't have a handle on 300+ Division I college basketball teams and 140 Division I college football teams. As good as they are, there are limits. Plus, they're less exposed with the Sun Belt or MAC than they are with the SEC or Big Ten, so they divert attention and resources accordingly.

Regarding baseball, there are ways to get an edge, but it requires being well-informed about almost every team. Which lineups are made up predominantly of right handed hitters? How do they fare against left handed pitching? Knowledge of the ballparks and what effect they have on fly ball pitchers. Ground ball pitchers fare worse in warm climates and domes than in other parks. It takes more than just a casual understanding. Dart-throwing doesn't work in MLB.

MLB is a grind. It's a volume sport because it's day after day after day and you'll have bullpen meltdowns and everything else. I'll post some of the games I like in here, but there aren't any guarantees on them.

If you're doing it for entertainment value, keep it that way. If you're doing it to try and supplement income, it's going to take a lot more time than you realize. It's a brutal business where 54%, with enough volume and enough of a bankroll, can be a great supplement or a living if you're betting a dime or more.

Bankroll management is the biggest thing. Don't bet what you don't have or would have to reload from losing.

[Virtual Jarmo]

Colorado -1.5 and Philadelphia in MLB for today are the two plays I like the most.

[Jets GM]

Solid post, Adam.

[Penguin]

Nice to know. But, I like to think I can outsmart the odds makers, it's about feeling too and watching A LOT of games. For example, no way I would have bet on Boston at 1.4 (decimal) with Chara playing like a dust and Price on fire.

Like tonight, LA pays 2.1 (decimal), imo it's a 50/50 chance of winning, so why not.

I also like to bet early, when a tournament starts.

What's your stand on parlays? Like 7 teamers. Tried many times, but it just pisses me off.

[Virtual Jarmo]

Nice to know. But, I like to think I can outsmart the odds makers, it's about feeling too and watching A LOT of games. For example, no way I would have bet on Boston at 1.4 (decimal) with Chara playing like a dust and Price on fire.

Like tonight, LA pays 2.1 (decimal), imo it's a 50/50 chance of winning, so why not.

I also like to bet early, when a tournament starts.

What's your stand on parlays? Like 7 teamers. Tried many times, but it just pisses me off.

You're 100% wrong with thinking you can outsmart the oddsmakers. You can't. I know plenty of professionals far smarter than you and I. I've followed and/or been part of the industry for the last eight years. There's no outsmarting the oddsmakers. You can find an edge in certain spots, but they'll always adjust and you have to be constantly adjusting. You'll find soft spots, soft lines, and lines that are off. And you'll capitalize. But the vast majority, probably 95% of who bet, are long-term losers at sports betting. And 4% of those are guys that eek out a small profit. There aren't many that can consistently win and be pros at it. Not only that, but they still have losing seasons.

I've found the Canadian Proline market to be softer than the US and offshore markets, but that's because you have to bet parlays so they have less exposure. Pinnacle, a Canadian-based online sportsbook, has some of the sharpest lines and the sharpest action in the online world.

And parlays are fucking stupid. For one thing, the true odds aren't the same as the payout. For another thing, like I said above, 54% and up is considered pretty good, especially when it takes 52.38% to beat the standard -110 vig. Hitting 60% is a golden year. Going 7/7 on a parlay is exceptionally rare.

[TorontoGM]

I've made a pretty good profit from English Soccer, I've lost money at everything else.