Draft Lottery

[flyergp21]

Do we have some information about the draft lottery tonight? Do we follow the real-life event like usual, and what about the Las Vegas franchise going into the lottery, how will this affect our league?

Thanks.

[Bruins_GM]

The Vegas pick goes to Boston, look it up.

[flyergp21]

Yeaaaaaaah!!!

I just won the 1st overall pick!!

Cheers!!

[Vik (Habs)]

Yeaaaaaaah!!!

I just won the 1st overall pick!!

Guessing we're going to have to do our own lottery since there's no Vegas but real life New Jersey = EHEC Winnipeg.

[Commish Bub(NYR)]

It's up to league staff whether or not we should run our own lottery, but if a new one isn't done...sorry Greg, but real life NHL winning team does not equal EHEC winning team. It's based on draft position, not the team.

Sorry about not getting to this earlier; I totally missed that this was tonight until they were doing it on live tv. Guess I should read the internet more often.

[SharksGM]

We can't use the odds from this year as there's no way to map them onto 14 teams. Luckily, the system from last year is fully documented:

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl ... zy-process

... so we just need to get random.org to generate three sequence of four random numbers between 1 and 14. I'll look into getting a permanent link so nobody can complain that it was rigged.

[flyergp21]

You're kidding right? I know how it's always been, I had the 5th worst record, so I was matched to the Devils, like you guys used to do it. And now you tell me after I won the lottery that I actually did not???

[SharksGM]

You're kidding right? I know how it's always been, I had the 5th worst record, so I was matched to the Devils, like you guys used to do it. And now you tell me after I won the lottery that I actually did not???

The Devils were 4th last in the league. Buffalo was 5th. Would you prefer to pick 8th overall?

[flyergp21]

You think I'm an idiot or what??

I had the 5th worst record in the league, so I was matched with the team with the 5th best odds, NJ in real life, exactly how it was for at least the past 2 seasons...

[SharksGM]

Ok, genius, so what exactly should we have done if the Islanders had won, since they had the 15th best odds out of the 15 teams in the lottery this year (which you'll note is not the same number as 14 from last year) ?

The last overall team had 18% odds this year and 20% last year. It's not the same at all.

[flyergp21]

Now you're insulting me, great...

But you really find it hard to figure out because of the 15th team??!!

We don't have the 15th team, so everybody else gets bumped 1 spot, that' all..

[SharksGM]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NHL_ ... ft_lottery
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NHL_ ... ft_lottery

The odds are significantly different for every team. The 14th team last year (Boston) had 1% odds of winning (3.3% for picking top 3). This year the 14th team (Tampa Bay) has 1.8% (6%) odds. Last year the last-place team (Toronto) had 47.5% odds of picking 4th vs 52% this year (for Colorado, which ended up happening). So no, it's not as simple as bumping teams one spot.

[flyergp21]

BTW, I'm not saying that having our own lottery system is a bad thing. But you should've said so a long time ago. I don't think the Vegas franchise was awarded last night, or did it?

[flyergp21]

Again, I can understand your point, even though the odds % don't really matter, but I'm frustrated to hear that AFTER the Damn lottery.

[TorontoGM]

Draft class isn't even done, so technically you have no idea what you're missing out on.

[Vik (Habs)]

I had the 5th worst record in the league, so I was matched with the team with the 5th best odds, NJ in real life, exactly how it was for at least the past 2 seasons...

Well now I'm curious, what did you think we'd do had the Islanders won any of the top three picks in the NHL lottery?

[SharksGM]

Again, I can understand your point, even though the odds % don't really matter, but I'm frustrated to hear that AFTER the Damn lottery.

Ok, so you just wanted us to announce that we wouldn't be using the results of this year's lottery. I'm sorry we didn't do that earlier. I had thought about it but I didn't see a fair way to use the NHL's results. It's true that we could have gone with ignoring the 15th team and hoping for the best but we didn't discuss it ahead of time or agree to it, so it's a bit late for that. Otherwise I could be a dick and argue that we should have dropped Vegas instead or assigned picks from the bottom up, leaving me with the #2 pick.

---------

Anyway, enough about that. Here's a solution. We'll use the combination book from last season's lottery:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/310954702/NH ... -Numerical

The odds of winning will go by standings order, so they're:

STL 20% (TOR)
MIN 13.5% (EDM)
FLA 11.5% (VAN)
WPG 9.5% (CBJ)
PHI 8.5% (CGY)
MTL 7.5% (WPG)
WSH 6.5% (ARZ)
COL 6% (BUF)
NJD* 5% (MTL)
EDM* 3.5% (COL)
BUF 3% (NJD)
SJ 2.5% (OTT)
NYI 2% (CAR)
CAR 1% (BOS)

We'll pick three unique combinations of four numbers using randomresult.com. I've set up more draws than are likely to be necessary for this and the results will show up Monday evening prime time (EST):

http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260346A8NYV
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260348BZC23
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260393DHSSY
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260366HWC4A
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260367Q366L
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260368Q3HE8
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260371DFBZF
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260372T5LD3
http://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php?t=260363Z3T4F

The extra draws are in case the draws for the 2nd & 3rd pick happen to land on the same team as already won #1 or #2; these are just discarded. Copy/paste the URLs for your reference in case you don't believe me; I think the links are permanent or long-lasting at least. In fact, please do check them to make sure that they all says 4 unique numbers from 1-14 because I accidentally entered one number instead a few times.

Everyone happy now? It's pretty much exactly how the NHL does it, minus physical ping pong balls. And now there's some suspense.

* I counted 36W - 6SOW = 30 ROW for NJD, and 35W - 4SOW = 31 ROW for EDM.

[Calgary.Flames]

MIN
PHI
EDM


Am I getting it right?

[flyergp21]

That's what Mike and I think also.

[AnaheimGM]

I got NYI pick

[SharksGM]

Right, so the draft order is:

1. MIN
2. PHI
3. EDM
4. STL
5. FLA
6. WPG
7. MTL
8. WSH
9. COL
10. NJD
11. BUF
12. SJ
13. NYI
14. CAR
15. VAN

Not counting trades since I'm not checking who owns actually owns those picks right now. The rest of the draft order depends on how Toronto does in the playoffs.

[Edmonton Mike]

Updated 1st round order, with trades:

1. Minnesota Wild
2. Calgary (via Philadelphia Flyers)
3. Edmonton Oilers
4. St.Louis Blues
5. Florida Panthers
6. Edmonton Oilers (via Winnipeg)
7. Montreal Canadiens
8. Washington Capitals
9. Colorado Avalanche
10. New Jersey Devils
11. New Jersey Devils (via Buffalo)
12. San Jose Sharks
13. Anaheim Ducks (via NYI)
14. Carolina Hurricanes
15. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Vancouver)
16. Columbus Blue Jackets
17. Montreal Canadiens (via Toronto)
18. Boston Bruins
19. St.Louis Blues (via Nashville)
20. Boston Bruins (via Chicago)
21. Pittsburgh Penguins (via Calgary)
22. Winnipeg Jets (via Los Angeles)
23. Montreal Canadiens (via Ottawa)
24. Chicago Blackhawks (via Dallas Stars)
25. Montreal Canadiens (via Detroit)
26. New York Rangers
27. St.Louis Blues (via Pittsburgh)
28. Montreal Canadiens (via Arizona)
29. Winnipeg Jets (via Anaheim)
30. Nashville Predators (via Tampa Bay)

[BLUESGM]

3 firsts! Pumped for the draft!