COL - TB

[Jets GM]

To the Colorado Avalanche:

Wojtek Wolski (71)
Kevin Klein (69)
Martin Brodeur (83)
Ben Bishop (88)
3rd CBJ 2013

To the Tampa Bay Lightning:

Taylor Beck (76)
Jonathan Bernier (91)
Brian Rafalski (82)
1st COL 2013

[Jets GM]

Accepted, I'll post reasoning when I'm not sleep deprived.

[GM Office Q]

To the Colorado Avalanche:

Wojtek Wolski (71)
Kevin Klein (69)
Martin Brodeur (83)
Ben Bishop (88)
3rd CBJ 2013

To the Tampa Bay Lightning:

Taylor Beck (76)
Jonathan Bernier (91)
Brian Rafalski (82)
1st COL 2013

I accept. My team needed a shakeup. Bernier wasn't getting it done for me, but I get a nice replacement for when retires in Bishop. I hate to trade back for a guy I waived, but Ken Holland did the same thing with Quincey. I hate to lose Rafalski, but he'll be retiring and Klein, though a low CON guy, can help patch that hole. Beck is a nice player high SH/HI player for Justin, but I'll have enough depth that I don't need him as much. I'm hoping this is worth gambling my first rounder. Nice deal Justin.

[Jets GM]

The South East has become death valley and the parity this season is startling; I've decided that my team is one of many contenders to win a Cup this year. Wolski and Klein have been pleasant surprises, but their ice-time was going to be given to players that need it to develop in the near future (Dalton Smith and Colby Cohen). Capitalizing on their fast starts and getting the maximum return was tough, but something that needs to happen.

Bernier is a slight upgrade on Bishop, Brodeur wasn't going to see much regular season ice-time and playoffs were not a given for TB. Beck is another addition to a nasty bottom 6, he'll fit right in with Klingberg, Budish, and Vande Velde. The main part for me is getting Colorado's 1st, it's a gamble given the uncertainty with the leagues future. I believe it will land me the best player out of the deal; although Adam loves EHEC so much a part of him probably hates it, I don't think he'll walk away. I'm also banking on a better draft then we saw last year, I've like what I heard so far so hopefully Adam does as well.

Accepted, GL Quinn.

[Virtual Jarmo]

Where does the value in the TB package equal a potential top ten first round pick? Curious to hear from both of you.

[Jets GM]

I have a lot of respect for Quinn's history with EHM and his contributions to this league. I'm uncomfortable trying to decipher his thought process, but will since I've been asked to; my trading history with new GMs is something I'm aware of.

Trading for a 1st early in the season is going to involve a massive amount of risk because of all the unknown variables. Where will the pick end up? How good will the draft be? Will a player be available that suits my needs? This coupled with the leagues sim schedule regarding wait times for player development makes the idea of investing in draft picks a high variance strategy. Add in the current volatility of the leagues future (trading for a pick in a league that could not exist after this season) and you have a valuabe asset with a severe amount of uncertainty. This is something me and Quinn discussed and agreed upon; the league has also used some of this logic in prior rulings.

Is there assets he's recieving worthy of his 1st this particular year? Clearly, Wojtek Wolski. A player that is 70+ in all OFF and DEF categories, SK, EN and CON is well rounded. In addition, HIT is a critically important category and he'll be between 85-90 HIT by seasons end. Such a balanced player with exceptional skill in an important and rare category is a valuable asset with no risk. I've heard him compared to Beck, that he's worth the same. Thats crazy, Beck has to many gaping holes in his game (SK, PM, DEF) to ever be a top 6 forward and won't be as good in hitting.

Klein isnt a top 10 talent, but name all the d-men in the league who are defensively sound, 70+ in all OFF categories and have amazing playmaking skills? Very few. Quinn said he has a low CON, I disagree. I think the league has established that 65 is an average CON level. He's worthy of a later 1st for sure and is better then a lot of the 1st round picks last year. 1.3m for 3 more years? Bargain.

Rafalski was more for salary, and his regression will hurt his value a lot more then Brodeur's. Going from mid/low 70's to high 60's is a huge change, thats the difference between NHL and AHL level skills. The regression from mid/low 80's to high 70's still makes Marty an NHL starter. Factor in his unmatched LE rating and how having a high LE goalie changes the complexion of your team, Quinn is making the Avs a threat in a weak division. Just look at what Brodeur did for my team in 2010.

Now you might say "you can't devalue Rafalski and not Brodeur." But Im not getting a "backup D-men" who can keep Brodeur on the bench and his current ratings intact until playoffs like Quinn is with Bishop. Long term, Im improving my goaltending situation by 3 CON and 1 OA points at a pricetag of over three million dollars.

I don't want to start poo-flinging or discussion of how horrible my trading tactics are, its why I took the time to make such a detailed post about the trade. Quinn and I talked for a few days, I made an offer and he said yes. If the league determines it unacceptable, I'll respect their decision.

[GM Office Q]

Nice analysis by Justin. Since we took a few days to come up with a deal, his thought process is similar to mine. I'll look at this from a different perspective, though. What I'm really getting is cost-effective depth in a situation where I'm up against the cap and still losing games.

Kevin Klein replaces Brian Rafalski:
Both guys are similar defensively, with Klein getting the slight nod with a half decade better hitting attribute. Offensively, Klein is pretty clearly the better player. Rafalski has a nice consistency, but it's not like Klein is sitting in the 50s. I'd say overall, Klein has a small, but finite advantage over Rafalski. And this making less than 1/3 of the salary, and he won't be retiring any time soon.

Wojtek Wolski replaces Taylor Beck:
I'll admit I made a mistake by getting rid of Wojtek Wolski in the first place, but that doesn't have anything to do with this trade. Wolski is an unmistakable upgrade over Beck. Wolski can play in the top two lines, Beck cannot. With Wolski, I now have a guy who can complete a very solid hit and grind line with Gabriel Landeskog and Brandon Saad. With this type of discrepancy in overall ability, comparing their salaries directly would be silly. Looking at players of Wolski's caliber, 3.75M for 2 years is a pretty nice cap number.

Ben Bishop and Martin Brodeur replace Jonathan Bernier:
A goalie with a mediocre OA and a high CON is perfect for a team with great defensive players. I do not have this. I need a guy with high OA and mediocre CON. In Brodeur, I get one of the best goaltenders in the entire league who happens to have a very high CON himself. I'm hoping he can get me through this season in a playoff spot, allowing my team to develop. As a bonus, I get Ben Bishop, who is probably the nearest clone to Jonathan Bernier in the entire league with a similar OA and a similar CON, but Bishop again makes 1/3 of the contract.

It was decided that the price to upgrade my team this heavily is to gamble my first round pick for a third round pick. As a guy who's drafted Gabriel Landeskog and Filip Forsberg in two of the past three drafts, I could spend another season waiting for a top 5 pick, or I can try to go for it now and actually win some games. Let's say I finish where I am currently in the standings, at #7. Keep in mind this is a small sample size, half of which I've spent without, Zach Parise, Matt Duchene and/or Drew Doughty. Last year, the #7 pick was Gaunce, a player who is comparable to Wojtek Wolski. I can live with that risk.

Especially with all of the injuries I've been getting, I need the depth. With this trade, I now have a pretty solid group of top six forwards (Matt Duchene, Zach Parise, Andy McDonald, Gabriel Landeskog, Wojtek Wolski, Milan Hejduk, Filip Forsberg), a pretty solid puck-possession defense core (Drew Doughty, Kevin Klein, Dennis Wideman, John-Michael Liles and Joe Corvo) and one of the top goaltending tandems in the league. Oh, and I still have MISTER Anderson. If this roster can't get me out of the top ten in terms of draft picks, then I deserve to lose this gamble.

[GoJetsGo]

Trade approved.

Adam's initial post and my response were both in reaction to Quinn's inclusion of his first in the upcoming draft.

Bishop for Bernier and what's left of Brodeur's career is reasonable. Bernier is a slight upgrade over Bishop in both potential and consistency, however his contract may over compensate for the spread.

Wolski and Klein are both useful pieces to build up a roster. Taylor Beck and a 3rd round selection are clearly short of bringing back Wolski and Klein. Clearly this trade can be best described as a gamble. We assume this makes Colorado better, the question is how much? A top 5 pick? Quinn will be kicking himself. 15 or later and a playoff birth, a chance worth taking.

[GoJetsGo]

Entered.

[Montreal Canadiens]

Interesting analysis here.

"Beck cannot play in the top two lines."

Stated by the guy trading him, and acquiring him.

"...Beck has to many gaping holes in his game (SK, PM, DEF) to ever be a top 6 forward and won't be as good in hitting."

[SharksGM]

You sure do know when to shut the fuck up, don't you?

Here, have some Beck career stats in three different fastsims:

Code: Select all

Career regular seasons
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM +/-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2007-08  Guelph Storm                OHL    56    7   14   21   43  2
2008-09  Guelph Storm                OHL    67   22   36   58   36  3
2009-10  Manchester Monarchs         AHL    39    4    2    6   12  -1
2009-10  Guelph Storm                OHL    17    7   11   18   14  19
2010-11  Los Angeles Kings           NHL     1    0    0    0    5  -1
2010-11  Manchester Monarchs         AHL    80   35    7   42   34  21
2011-12  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    61   11    9   20  111  14
2012-13  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    81   24   24   48  164  0
2013-14  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    80   29   39   68  140  21
2014-15  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    78   35   39   74  137  14
2015-16  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   31   32   63  238  -6
2016-17  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   40   36   76  177  8
2017-18  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    81   32   31   63  231  32
2018-19  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   44   28   72  206  24
2019-20  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   48   32   80  208  19
2020-21  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   27   21   48  184  3
2021-22  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   33   32   65  112  -10
(gets bumped down to 3rd & 4th line duties after draftees pass him in OV)
2022-23  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    57   12   19   31  116  -4
2023-24  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    67   15   12   27  110  -23
2024-25  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   15   11   26  155  -12

Three more which used the same 11-12 and 12-13 season but broke off later:
------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011-12  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    63   11    7   18  101  6
2012-13  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    73   15    9   24   88  -12
2013-14  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   26   17   43   94  0
2014-15  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    80   22   29   51  144  2
2015-16  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   32   28   60   86  2

Two more starting off from the previous sim's 2012-2013 season...
----------------------------------------------------------------------

2011-12  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    63   11    7   18  101  6
2012-13  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    73   15    9   24   88  -12
2013-14  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    79   64   34   98  238  -5
2014-15  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    81   27   28   55  181  -3
2015-16  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    80   29   35   64  155  -5
2016-17  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   34   37   71  203  11
2017-18  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   26   22   48  195  -10
2018-19  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   32   23   55  209  1
2019-20  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    80   32   29   61  209  6
2020-21  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   35   30   65  158  7

-------------------------------
2011-12  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    63   11    7   18  101  6
2012-13  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    73   15    9   24   88  -12
2013-14  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   16   12   28  187  -17
2014-15  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    81   23   25   48  162  5
2015-16  Colorado Avalanche          NHL    82   33   33   66  206  16

Sure, it'll take him 2-3 seasons to develop his ST, PO and SK, but I guess a 77 of 72 df 76 con forward with 99 sh will never fit in an NHL top 6 with a career highs 64 goal season and multiple 30+. Plus fighting a whole hell of a lot, which some people around here seem to like.

[CapsGM]

[Montreal Canadiens]

test sims mean jack shit. Everybody knows that.

I was just pointing out I'm not the only one in the world that doesn't see Taylor Beck as a top 6 forward. The guy who TRADED him (Quinn) stated he wasn't, and the guy ACQUIRING him (Justin) said "he'll be a great fit in my BOTTOM SIX."

Yet here we are months later proclaiming Beck as a top 6 forward and worthy of a 1st round draft pick.

I don't think I need to "shut the fuck up." I was told if I had any issues to bring them up. As a GM, I think I'm also entitled to that.

Sorry that I'm not a fan of seeing Detroit get the shit end of a deal for the 10th time. 33 % of our 15 rejected trades involve DET for a reason.

But no problem Dan, because you asked me to, I'll just sit here, never say a word, and who gives a fuck if DET gets ruined. It's also the umpteenth time Justin rips somebody off in a deal as well, but who cares!! Let's use that mentality from here on out.

[Jets GM]

Brad, please, let it go. You are correct in saying as a GM you have a right to voice your opinion on league issues, but you are going about it all wrong. You hijacked a trade thread that did not involve your team and our now bumping a month old thread? Your causing problems and making yourself look self-absorbed. MSN, PM and creating threads in the proper 'open discussion' type forums is valid way to voice your thoughts that doesn't reflect so poorly on yourself or upset others.

As far as Beck goes, or what I have said in the past, is it at all possible I've said things I didn't mean in an effort to get a trade approved? I admit when this trade was posted I had doubts about it being acceptable. I went to Dan and he of course went off on me, his main arguments being Beck was worth more then Wolski let alone including a possible top 10 pick. So, it was clear to me in order to get the trade approved I had to convince whoever necessary that Beck's value was as small as possible. To me, Beck is clearly worthy of a top six spot and definitively would of gone in the first round of last years draft. I don't feel great about having to bend the truth or argue for something I don't really believe in, but I'm doing whatever I have to do to get another ring. This is an outlet for my competitive nature.

Now you might be thinking "Who's to say your not trying to mislead us about Beck's worth now?." First, the trade has been approved, the issue is closed. Second, I had Beck penciled as a top six forward since I acquired him.



I took a collage of my notebooks from school, I do current and future lineups when I get bored in class. Some of them involve possible trades I considered. Every single one I had him in my top six. So please, let it go Brad.

[Montreal Canadiens]

Where was the amazing two-way player Louis Leblanc in that notebook of yours?

I brought my issues up privately and was told to post them publically, so I did just that......

And no, I don't think you "lied" about under-valuing Beck, it's a lie to over-value him by stating he's worth the 1st rd pick.

P.S. - Why on earth would Budish be on your top line.........

[Virtual Jarmo]

Brad, the question here is, would you have cared at all about this trade had Detroit not backed out of your deal?

The answer is no.

So, please, let it go, leave it alone, and find something else to complain about. I'm sure it won't take you long to find something.